Texas Races Down to the Wire: Abbott 50-47, Talarico 49-47 in the Texas Southern Survey, and Both Campaigns Closing in San Antonio
Two Texas races, both inside three points, one survey. On the last Sunday of the most expensive Senate campaign in American history — just under $340 million in advertising, by the AP's count — all four candidates spent the night asking the same state for the same thing: turnout.
Texas's 2026 election entered its final hours on Sunday with its two biggest races effectively tied. A Texas Southern University survey from the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs puts Republican Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 50% to 47%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 2% — and Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 47% in the Senate race, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%. San Antonio emerged as the key stop of the final Sunday, drawing closing appeals from both candidates for governor while the Senate hopefuls intensified their own campaigns ahead of polls opening at 7 a.m. Tuesday.
The closing arguments are now set, and they are mirror images. Hinojosa campaigned in San Antonio on education, describing public schools as essential to local economies and protected by the Texas constitution. Abbott centered his closing pitch on fiscal policy, border enforcement and social issues, attacking Hinojosa's legislative record — accusing her, in his campaign's framing, of supporting tax increases, sanctuary-city policies and defunding police. In the Senate race, Talarico told supporters in San Antonio that outside groups had already spent more than $300 million trying to defeat him, calling the contest the most expensive Senate race in American history; the Associated Press has reported total advertising spending at just under $340 million, with Talarico raising substantially more directly while Paxton's campaign benefited from large-scale super PAC spending. Paxton, campaigning in Georgetown, framed the election in existential terms: 'This isn't just red versus blue; it's the America our founders gave us versus something that they would never recognize.'
A survey is a measurement, not a verdict, and a three-point and a two-point race are both, in practical terms, turnout contests now. That is why all four candidates spent the last Sunday doing the same work in the same places: the campaigns have read the same numbers this station has, and every one of them points to an electorate that has not finished deciding. More than 7.7 million Texans have already voted. On Tuesday, the rest of Texas answers.
