Final Polls: Democrats Lead Every Senate Battleground, and Talarico Leads Paxton 50-43 in Texas

The last word from the pollsters is a sweep. The final New York Times/Siena College surveys of the Senate battlegrounds, released Sunday by the Siena Research Institute, show Democratic candidates leading in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the chamber: Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers 53-42 in Michigan, James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 50-43 in Texas, Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins 51-45 in Maine, Adam Hamilton ahead of Roger Marshall 49-44 in Kansas, Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted 49-44 in Ohio, Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan 48-46 in Alaska, and Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson 48-47 in Iowa.

The Texas number is the one that would have been unthinkable when this cycle began: a seven-point Democratic lead in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, in the most expensive non-presidential race on record. The same release found the Texas governor's race too close to call — a split verdict that describes this state in 2026 precisely. For Dallas–Fort Worth, the poll is the last measurement before the only one that counts: Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two of the turnout engines both campaigns have named all fall.

The caution belongs in the story because the pollsters put it there. 'While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility,' Siena director Don Levy said, 'with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.' Alaska's two-point race and Iowa's one-point race sit well inside their samples' error margins, and a poll of likely voters is a model of an electorate that has not finished voting. On Tuesday, as Levy put it, the counts speak louder than the polls.