The Final Numbers Disagree on the Margin, Not the Leader: Talarico Hits a Record 76% on Kalshi While the Polls Run From a Tie to Seven Points
Election Eve in the Texas Senate race is a study in two kinds of certainty: the prediction markets have run to 3-to-1 for James Talarico, while the final polls — the ones that actually survey voters — say Ken Paxton is anywhere from tied to seven points back.
The markets moved first and furthest. Kalshi's Texas Senate contract reached a record 76 percent for Democrat James Talarico on Election Eve, with Republican Ken Paxton at 24 — a near-complete reversal from December 2024, when the same contract opened with Paxton at 81. Polymarket prices the same shape, Talarico at 75 cents to Paxton's 25, and the Kalshi market alone has drawn about $74.9 million in trading volume, up from $52.7 million at the last update. Those are prices set by traders, not counts of voters — but as a snapshot of expectations on the last day, they are unambiguous.
The polls are not. Every final survey has Talarico ahead or tied, and none agrees on by how much: the New York Times/Siena poll puts him up seven, 50 to 43, a lead its analysts tie in part to Paxton's favorability — the worst of any candidate in the survey. CNN/SSRS, from October 20–27, had it 49–43; ActiVote has Talarico up 4.2; Texas Southern scores it 49–47; the RealClearPolitics average sits at roughly two points, 48.8 to 47.0. And at the other end of the range, Trafalgar found a 48–48 tie and Quantus had Paxton in front, 48.7 to 47.6 — which is why the honest Election Eve sentence is that Talarico leads every average while the race itself remains inside the reach of a strong Republican Election Day turnout.
Underneath the topline, the electorate's hinge is visible in the same numbers. Decision Desk HQ's average, reported by NewsNation on November 1, has Talarico at 54.8 percent among Hispanic voters to Paxton's 32.1 — while a University of Houston poll found Paxton leading among rural Hispanics, 56 to 24. Texas has no party registration, so Tuesday's turnout will be read through primary history rather than party rolls. The markets have placed their bet. The voters place theirs between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.
